Takahashi Lucy Tiemi, Maidana Norberto Anibal, Ferreira Wilson Castro, Pulino Petronio, Yang Hyun Mo
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - IMECC, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Brazil.
Bull Math Biol. 2005 May;67(3):509-28. doi: 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.08.005.
Biological invasion is an important area of research in mathematical biology and more so if it concerns species which are vectors for diseases threatening the public health of large populations. That is certainly the case for Aedes aegypti and the dengue epidemics in South America. Without the prospect of an effective and cheap vaccine in the near future, any feasible public policy for controlling the dengue epidemics in tropical climates must necessarily include appropriate strategies for minimizing the mosquito population factor. The present paper discusses some mathematical models designed to describe A. aegypti's vital and dispersal dynamics, aiming to highlight practical procedures for the minimization of its impact as a dengue vector. A continuous model including diffusion and advection shows the existence of a stable travelling wave in many situations and a numerical study relates the wavefront speed to a few crucial parameters. Strategies for invasion containment and its prediction based on measurable parameters are analysed.
生物入侵是数学生物学中的一个重要研究领域，如果涉及到作为威胁大量人群公共健康疾病传播媒介的物种，那就更是如此。埃及伊蚊和南美洲的登革热疫情无疑就是这种情况。由于近期没有有效且廉价疫苗的前景，任何在热带气候中控制登革热疫情的可行公共政策都必须包括适当策略，以尽量减少蚊子种群因素。本文讨论了一些旨在描述埃及伊蚊的生命和扩散动态的数学模型，旨在突出将其作为登革热传播媒介的影响降至最低的实际程序。一个包含扩散和对流的连续模型表明，在许多情况下存在稳定的行波，并且数值研究将波前速度与几个关键参数联系起来。分析了基于可测量参数的入侵遏制及其预测策略。
