Eames Ken T D, Keeling Matt J
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Dec 22;270(1533):2565-71. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2003.2554.
Contact tracing, followed by treatment or isolation, is a key control measure in the battle against infectious diseases. It is an extreme form of locally targeted control, and as such has the potential to be highly efficient when dealing with low numbers of cases. For this reason it is frequently used to combat sexually transmitted diseases and new invading pathogens. Accurate modelling of contact tracing requires explicit information about the disease-transmission pathways from each individual, and hence the network of contacts. Here, pairwise-approximation methods and full stochastic simulations are used to investigate the utility of contact tracing. A simple relationship is found between the efficiency of contact tracing necessary for eradication and the basic reproductive ratio of the disease. This holds for a wide variety of realistic situations including heterogeneous networks containing core-groups or super-spreaders, and asymptomatic individuals. Clustering (transitivity) within the transmission network is found to destroy the relationship, requiring lower efficiency than predicted.
接触者追踪，随后进行治疗或隔离，是抗击传染病的关键控制措施。它是一种局部针对性控制的极端形式，因此在处理少量病例时可能非常高效。因此，它经常被用于对抗性传播疾病和新入侵的病原体。接触者追踪的准确建模需要每个个体疾病传播途径的明确信息，从而需要接触网络的信息。在这里，使用成对近似方法和全随机模拟来研究接触者追踪的效用。发现根除所需的接触者追踪效率与疾病的基本繁殖率之间存在简单关系。这适用于各种现实情况，包括包含核心群体或超级传播者以及无症状个体的异质网络。发现传播网络内的聚类（传递性）会破坏这种关系，所需效率低于预测值。
