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一项关于新西兰绵羊和养牛场人员流动情况的调查,涉及口蹄疫的潜在传播。

A survey to investigate movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, with reference to the potential transmission of foot-and-mouth disease.

作者信息

Sanson R L

机构信息

AgriQuality Limited, PO Box 585, Palmerston North, New Zealand.

出版信息

N Z Vet J. 2005 Aug;53(4):223-33. doi: 10.1080/00480169.2005.36550.

Abstract

AIM

To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread.

METHODS

Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively 'busy' and 'quiet' times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors.

RESULTS

Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0-1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4-1,203 km).

CONCLUSIONS

People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.

摘要

目的

量化新西兰绵羊和养牛场的动物移动数量及范围,以便构建更现实的模拟模型,来研究口蹄疫等传染病可能的传播方式。

方法

从500个随机选取的农场中挑选农民参与,这些农场分别来自以下五个领域,即肉牛、奶牛、放牧/奶牛小母牛饲养、绵羊以及绵羊和肉牛混合养殖,每个领域各选100个农场。要求农民填写日志,记录在两个不同的为期3周的时间段内,所有进出其农场的动物、产品、人员、车辆和设备的移动情况,这两个时间段分别代表一年中牲畜移动相对“繁忙”和“清淡”的时期。在可能的情况下,确定每次移动的目的地并进行地理编码,以便计算移动距离。然后根据口蹄疫病毒(FMDV)传播风险,对每次移动进行分类,假设在移动发生时研究农场存在口蹄疫疫情。随后对数据进行分析,以确定不同牧区牲畜领域的移动频率和移动距离分布。

结果

217位农民返回了一本或多本日志。193位农民完成了“繁忙期”日志,记录了总共12052次离开其农场的移动,粗略计算平均每3周62.4次,即每天2.97次。其中,4.0%涉及牲畜运输,相当于每天0.12批牲畜运输。相比之下,返回了186本“清淡期”日志,记录了总共10885次离开农场的移动,粗略计算在3周期间平均为58.5次,即每天2.78次。其中,2.1%涉及牲畜,相当于每天0.06批牲畜运输。“繁忙期”移动的平均距离和中位数距离分别为30.9公里和13.1公里(范围为0 - 116​​7公里)。相比之下,“清淡期”移动的平均距离和中位数距离分别为41.3公里和14公里(范围为0.4 - 1203公里)。

结论

在新西兰,人员、车辆、牲畜和其他物品可以直接或通过牲畜市场从牧区农场前往其他农场,移动距离较远。这对口蹄疫等传染病的潜在传播具有影响。建立了用于口蹄疫农场间传播模拟模型InterSpread Plus的移动参数,这将有助于在现实生活中发生疫情的不太可能情况下,预测疾病可能的传播范围和控制效果。

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