Doll R
Imperial Cancer Research Fund Cancer Studies Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, England.
Am J Public Health. 1992 Jul;82(7):933-41. doi: 10.2105/ajph.82.7.933.
Expectation of life at birth provides a simple measure of the state of health of a country. Differences in the expectation are examined in the United States over time and between males and females and Whites and non-Whites, and worldwide between market and nonmarket developed countries, and between developed and developing countries. The principal factors responsible for the trends and the current differences are changes in the social and physical environment, in personal behavior, and in medical care, and their relative importance is assessed. It is concluded that, at present, the principal environmental hazards worldwide are those associated with poverty of individuals within the market economies and of communities in the developing countries and that in the future, they will be the effects of overpopulation and the production of greenhouse gases.
出生时预期寿命是衡量一个国家健康状况的一个简单指标。对美国不同时期、男性与女性之间、白人与非白人之间的预期寿命差异进行了研究,同时也对全球范围内市场经济发达国家与非市场经济发达国家之间、发达国家与发展中国家之间的预期寿命差异进行了研究。对造成这些趋势和当前差异的主要因素,即社会和自然环境、个人行为以及医疗保健方面的变化进行了评估,并分析了它们的相对重要性。得出的结论是,目前全球主要的环境危害是市场经济国家中个人贫困以及发展中国家社区贫困所带来的危害,而未来,这些危害将是人口过剩和温室气体排放的影响。