Riggs J E
Department of Neurology, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown 26506.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1992 Jun;64(1-2):161-75. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(92)90104-l.
Age-specific mortality rates for emphysema in the United States from 1962 through 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis, a method that can be used to identify and distinguish aggregate genetic, environmental, and competitive influences upon mortality. Annual crude emphysema mortality rates (per 100,000) among men increased from 11.77 in 1962 to 20.94 in 1968, and then fell to 7.74 in 1987. The basis for this rise and fall is shown to be the corresponding changes in environmental influences upon emphysema mortality in men. Between 1962 and 1987, the annual crude emphysema mortality rates among women increased from 1.71 to 4.25. The basis for the increase of emphysema mortality in women, on the other hand, is shown to be an enhancement of the competitiveness of emphysema as a cause of mortality in women, and not the result of worsening environmental influences. The capability to distinguish between environmental and competitive influences upon evolving human mortality patterns could have a significant impact upon public health policy.
对1962年至1987年美国按年龄划分的肺气肿死亡率进行了纵向冈珀茨分析，这是一种可用于识别和区分总体遗传、环境及竞争因素对死亡率影响的方法。男性每年的肺气肿粗死亡率（每10万人）从1962年的11.77上升至1968年的20.94，随后在1987年降至7.74。这种上升和下降的原因被证明是男性肺气肿死亡率所受环境影响的相应变化。1962年至1987年间，女性每年的肺气肿粗死亡率从1.71升至4.25。另一方面，女性肺气肿死亡率上升的原因被证明是肺气肿作为女性死亡原因的竞争力增强，而非环境影响恶化的结果。区分环境和竞争因素对不断变化的人类死亡率模式的影响，可能会对公共卫生政策产生重大影响。
