Riggs J E, Chen K
Department of Neurology, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1993 Feb;67(1-2):65-78. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(93)90112-5.
Between 1979 and 1988, annual crude non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality rates (per 100,000) in the United States increased from 3.43 to 6.34 among men (an 85% increase in only 10 years) and, among women, increased from 2.82 to 5.71 (a 102% increase). Age-specific mortality rates for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from 1979 through 1988 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis, a method that may be able to identify and distinguish among genetic, environmental and competitive influences upon evolving mortality trends. The results of this analysis suggest that the basis for the dramatic rise in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality is due to worsening environmental influences. The capability to distinguish between environmental and competitive influences upon evolving mortality patterns has significant public health policy implications.
1979年至1988年间，美国男性非霍奇金淋巴瘤的年粗死亡率（每10万人）从3.43升至6.34（仅10年就增长了85%），女性则从2.82升至5.71（增长了102%）。对1979年至1988年非霍奇金淋巴瘤的年龄别死亡率进行了纵向冈珀茨分析，该方法或许能够识别并区分基因、环境和竞争因素对不断变化的死亡率趋势的影响。这一分析结果表明，非霍奇金淋巴瘤死亡率急剧上升的原因是环境影响恶化。区分环境和竞争因素对不断变化的死亡率模式的影响的能力具有重大的公共卫生政策意义。
