Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality in the US, 1979-1988: demonstration of the environmental basis for rising overall mortality.

Between 1979 and 1988, annual crude non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality rates (per 100,000) in the United States increased from 3.43 to 6.34 among men (an 85% increase in only 10 years) and, among women, increased from 2.82 to 5.71 (a 102% increase). Age-specific mortality rates for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from 1979 through 1988 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis, a method that may be able to identify and distinguish among genetic, environmental and competitive influences upon evolving mortality trends. The results of this analysis suggest that the basis for the dramatic rise in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality is due to worsening environmental influences. The capability to distinguish between environmental and competitive influences upon evolving mortality patterns has significant public health policy implications.