Stewart Neil, Chater Nick, Brown Gordon D A
Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
Cogn Psychol. 2006 Aug;53(1):1-26. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2005.10.003. Epub 2006 Jan 24.
We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We assume that the sample reflects both the immediate distribution of attribute values from the current decision's context and also the background, real-world distribution of attribute values. DbS accounts for concave utility functions; losses looming larger than gains; hyperbolic temporal discounting; and the overestimation of small probabilities and the underestimation of large probabilities.
我们提出了一种抽样决策理论(DbS),与传统模型不同的是,该理论中不存在潜在的心理经济量表。相反,我们假设一个属性的主观价值是通过与从记忆中提取的属性值样本进行一系列二元有序比较构建而成的,并且是其在样本中的排名。我们假设该样本既反映了当前决策背景下属性值的即时分布,也反映了属性值的背景现实世界分布。抽样决策理论解释了凹形效用函数;损失比收益显得更大;双曲线时间贴现;以及小概率的高估和大概率的低估。