Marmor Michael, Marmor Nicholas E
Department of Environmental Medicine, NYU School of Medicine, 650 First Avenue, Room 560, New York, NY 10016-3240, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2006 May;96(5):914-20. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2004.050070. Epub 2006 Feb 28.
We investigated risk factors for fatal motor vehicle crashes on slippery roads in the Northeastern United States, 1998-2002.
We analyzed data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
Rates of crashes on slippery roads, and ratios of crashes on slippery roads to crashes on dry roads, were greatest among the youngest drivers. Among those aged 16 to 19 years, logistic regression analysis showed significant, independent risks associated with excessive speed for conditions (odds ratio [OR]=1.38), time of day (OR=1.80 for 5:00 to 9:00 am vs 10:00 am to 2:00 pm), time of year (OR=6.17 for January vs July), type of road (OR=1.27 for rural vs urban roads ), and age (OR=1.19 for those aged 16 to 17 years vs those aged 18 to 19 years). Licensure from states with graduated licensing programs was protective against crashes attributed to swerving on slippery roads (adjusted OR = 0.63). Risk factors among drivers older than 19 years were similar but peaked at different times of day and included increased risks for women compared with men.
Driver training programs need to better address hazards presented by slippery roads.
我们调查了1998 - 2002年美国东北部湿滑道路上致命机动车撞车事故的风险因素。
我们分析了国家公路交通安全管理局的死亡分析报告系统中的数据。
在最年轻的驾驶员中，湿滑道路上的撞车率以及湿滑道路上的撞车事故与干燥道路上的撞车事故的比率最高。在16至19岁的人群中，逻辑回归分析显示，与路况下超速（优势比[OR]=1.38）、一天中的时间（上午5:00至9:00与上午10:00至下午2:00相比，OR=1.80）、一年中的时间（1月与7月相比，OR=6.17）、道路类型（农村道路与城市道路相比，OR=1.27）以及年龄（16至17岁与18至19岁相比，OR=1.19）相关的显著独立风险。来自实施分级驾照计划州的驾照对因在湿滑道路上转弯导致的撞车事故有保护作用（调整后的OR = 0.63）。19岁以上驾驶员的风险因素相似，但在一天中的不同时间达到峰值，并且女性比男性的风险增加。
驾驶员培训计划需要更好地应对湿滑道路带来的危险。
