Epley Nicholas, Dunning David
University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2006 May;32(5):641-55. doi: 10.1177/0146167205284007.
Four experiments demonstrate that self-knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioral prediction, depending on how accuracy is measured. Compared with predictions of others, self-knowledge tends to decrease overall accuracy by increasing bias (the mean difference between predicted behavior and reality) but tends to increase overall accuracy by also enhancing discrimination (the correlation between predicted behavior and reality). Overall, participants' self-predictions overestimated the likelihood that they would engage in desirable behaviors (bias), whereas peer predictions were relatively unbiased. However, self-predictions also were more strongly correlated with individual differences in actual behavior (discrimination) than were peer predictions. Discussion addresses the costs and benefits of self-knowledge in behavioral prediction and the broader implications of measuring judgmental accuracy of judgment in terms of bias versus discrimination.
四项实验表明，自我认知在行为预测中是一把双刃剑，这取决于准确性的衡量方式。与对他人的预测相比，自我认知往往会因增加偏差（预测行为与实际行为之间的平均差异）而降低整体准确性，但也会因提高辨别力（预测行为与实际行为之间的相关性）而提高整体准确性。总体而言，参与者的自我预测高估了他们会做出期望行为的可能性（偏差），而同伴预测则相对无偏差。然而，自我预测与实际行为中的个体差异（辨别力）的相关性也比同伴预测更强。讨论涉及自我认知在行为预测中的成本和收益，以及从偏差与辨别力角度衡量判断准确性的更广泛意义。
