Tallis Heather M, Kareiva Peter
University of Washington, Biology Department, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2006 Oct;21(10):562-8. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2006.07.009. Epub 2006 Jul 31.
One of the most ambitious ecological studies of the past few decades was the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), which examined the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being. The MA developed global ecological scenarios as a process to inform policy options, despite enormous uncertainties. These scenarios were based on an interlocking suite of models that forecast the future. Following the recent completion and publication of the MA, there is now movement towards making the value of ecosystem services an integral part of key policy decisions. Here, we review the MA approach and suggest areas where immediate progress can be made to increase the likelihood that decision-makers will embrace the vision of assessments such as the MA.
过去几十年里最具雄心的生态研究之一是千年生态系统评估（MA），该评估考察了生态系统变化对人类福祉的影响。尽管存在巨大的不确定性，千年生态系统评估仍制定了全球生态情景，作为为政策选择提供信息的一个过程。这些情景基于一套相互关联的预测未来的模型。随着千年生态系统评估近期完成并发布，目前正朝着将生态系统服务价值纳入关键政策决策的方向发展。在此，我们回顾千年生态系统评估的方法，并指出可以立即取得进展的领域，以增加决策者接受千年生态系统评估等评估愿景的可能性。
