Staff Mestl Heidi Elizabeth, Aunan Kristin, Seip Hans Martin
Oslo University College, Faculty of Engineering, P.O. Box 4 St. Olavs plass, Cort Adelersgt. 30, 0130 Oslo, Norway.
Sci Total Environ. 2006 Dec 15;372(1):120-32. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.09.007. Epub 2006 Oct 31.
Indoor air pollution from solid fuel use has severe health effects. 60% of the Chinese population lives in rural areas, where most people rely on solid fuels for cooking and heating. We estimate exposure by combining information on the amount of time spent in different microenvironments and estimates of the particle concentrations (PM(10)) in these environments. According to our estimates, 70% of the exposure experienced by the rural population is due to indoor air pollution (IAP). The urban coal using population experience a 17% increase in exposure from IAP. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to quantify variability and uncertainty in the exposure, morbidity and mortality estimates. We find that applying Monte Carlo simulations reduces the estimated uncertainty compared to analytical methods based on approximate distributions and the central limit theorem. We find that annually about 4% (geometric S.D. sigma(g), 3.2) and 35% (sigma(g), 2.6) of the deaths in the urban and rural populations, respectively, could be avoided by switching to clean fuels. Upgrading the stoves in rural areas to the standard found in urban areas is estimated to reduce mortality by 23% (sigma(g), 3.1). Moreover, we estimate that chronic respiratory illness (CRI) in children can be reduced by, respectively, about 9% (sigma(g), 2.5) and 80% (sigma(g) 1.9) by switching to clean fuels in the urban and rural areas. Upgrading the stoves in rural areas is estimated to reduce CRI in children with about 58% (sigma(g) 2.3). For adults the reduction in CRI was estimated to be 6% (sigma(g) 2.4) and 45% (sigma(g) 1.8) for the urban and rural population following a fuel switch, and 31% (sigma(g) 2.4) for the rural population from stove improvements. Contrary to our expectations we find small gender differences in exposure. We ascribe that to comparable kitchen and living area concentrations and similar indoor occupation times for the genders. Young children and the elderly spend the most time indoors, and have the highest daily exposure in the coal using population. The rural population experience higher exposure than the urban population, even though the outdoor air is significantly cleaner in rural areas.
使用固体燃料造成的室内空气污染对健康有严重影响。60%的中国人口生活在农村地区，那里大多数人依靠固体燃料做饭和取暖。我们通过结合在不同微环境中花费的时间信息以及这些环境中颗粒物浓度（PM(10)）的估计值来估算暴露情况。根据我们的估计，农村人口所经历的暴露中有70%是由于室内空气污染（IAP）。城市使用煤炭的人口因室内空气污染导致的暴露增加了17%。我们应用蒙特卡罗模拟来量化暴露、发病率和死亡率估计中的变异性和不确定性。我们发现，与基于近似分布和中心极限定理的分析方法相比，应用蒙特卡罗模拟降低了估计的不确定性。我们发现，通过改用清洁燃料，城市和农村人口每年分别约有4%（几何标准差σ(g)，3.2）和35%（σ(g)，2.6）的死亡可以避免。将农村地区的炉灶升级到城市地区的标准估计可使死亡率降低23%（σ(g)，3.1）。此外，我们估计，通过在城市和农村地区改用清洁燃料，儿童慢性呼吸道疾病（CRI）可分别降低约9%（σ(g)，2.5）和80%（σ(g) 1.9）。将农村地区的炉灶升级估计可使儿童慢性呼吸道疾病降低约58%（σ(g) 2.3）。对于成年人，改用燃料后，城市和农村人口的慢性呼吸道疾病估计分别降低6%（σ(g) 2.4）和45%（σ(g) 1.8），而农村人口因炉灶改进慢性呼吸道疾病降低31%（σ(g) 2.4）。与我们的预期相反，我们发现暴露方面的性别差异很小。我们将此归因于男女在厨房和居住区域的浓度相当以及室内停留时间相似。幼儿和老年人在室内停留的时间最长，在使用煤炭的人群中每日暴露量最高。农村人口的暴露程度高于城市人口，尽管农村地区的室外空气明显更清洁。
