Paulozzi Leonard J, Ryan George W, Espitia-Hardeman Victoria E, Xi Yongli
National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy., NE, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2007 May;39(3):606-17. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.10.007. Epub 2006 Nov 7.
The relationship between a country's stage of economic development and its motor vehicle crash (MVC) mortality rate is not defined for different road users. This paper presents a cross-sectional regression analysis of recent national mortality in 44 countries using death certificate data provided by the World Health Organization. For five types of road users, MVC mortality is expressed as deaths per 100,000 people and per 1000 motor vehicles. Economic development is measured as gross national income (GNI) per capita in U.S. dollars and as motor vehicles per 1000 people. Results showed overall MVC mortality peaked among low-income countries at about US$ 2000 GNI per capita and at about 100 motor vehicles per 1000 people. Overall mortality declined at higher national incomes up to about US$ 24,000. Most changes in MVC mortality associated with economic development were explained by changes in rates among nonmotorized travelers, especially pedestrians. Overall MVC rates were lowest when pedestrian exposure was low because there were few motor vehicles or few pedestrians, and were highest during a critical transition to motorized travel, when many pedestrians and other vulnerable road users vied for use of the roadways with many motor vehicles.
一个国家的经济发展阶段与其机动车碰撞（MVC）死亡率之间的关系，对于不同道路使用者而言并不明确。本文利用世界卫生组织提供的死亡证明数据，对44个国家近期的全国死亡率进行了横断面回归分析。对于五类道路使用者，MVC死亡率表示为每10万人和每1000辆机动车的死亡人数。经济发展以人均国民总收入（GNI）（以美元计）和每1000人的机动车数量来衡量。结果显示，总体MVC死亡率在低收入国家达到峰值，人均GNI约为2000美元，每1000人约有100辆机动车。在国民收入高于约24000美元时，总体死亡率下降。与经济发展相关的MVC死亡率的大多数变化是由非机动出行者（尤其是行人）的死亡率变化所解释的。当行人暴露率较低时，即机动车数量少或行人数量少时，总体MVC率最低；而在向机动化出行的关键过渡阶段，当许多行人和其他弱势道路使用者与众多机动车争夺道路使用权时，总体MVC率最高。
