Wiebe Douglas J, Ray Sunanda, Maswabi Titus, Kgathi Christina, Branas Charles C
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, 19104, USA.
Department of Community Medicine, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences and School of Public Health University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.
Afr J Emerg Med. 2016 Jun;6(2):80-86. doi: 10.1016/j.afjem.2016.03.003. Epub 2016 May 31.
The rapid growth of Botswana's economy since independence in 1966 has brought more tarred roads and vehicles, accompanied by an escalating road crash fatality rate. We tested the hypothesis that motor vehicle crash fatality increases resulted from, rather than just corresponded with, annual gross domestic product (GDP) increases. Data from Zambia, adjacent to Botswana, were used for comparison.
Annual social and economic indicators and motor vehicle crash fatality rates in Botswana and Zambia were accessed from 1960 to 2012 and analysed using vector autoregressive analysis and Granger causality tests.
In Botswana, annual changes in per capita GDP predicted annual changes in motor vehicle crash fatality rates ( = 0.042). The opposite was not observed; annual changes in motor vehicle crash fatality rates did not predict annual GDP changes. These findings suggest that GDP growth in a given year caused additional road traffic fatalities in Botswana and that, on average, every billion dollar increase in GDP produced an increase in the rate of road traffic fatalities. In Zambia, annual GDP changes predicted annual fatality rate changes three years later ( = 0.029), but annual changes in road crash fatality rates also predicted annual increases in per capita GDP ( = 0.026) three years later, suggesting a correlation between trends, but not a causal effect of GDP.
Road crash fatalities increased in recent decades in both Zambia and Botswana. But the rapid economic development in Botswana over this time period appears to have driven proportionate road traffic fatality increases. There are opportunities for newly emerging economies such as Zambia, Angola, and others to learn from the Botswana experience. Evidence-based investments in road safety interventions should be concomitant with economic development.
自1966年独立以来，博茨瓦纳经济迅速增长，柏油路和车辆增多，但道路交通事故死亡率也在不断攀升。我们检验了这样一个假设，即机动车事故死亡率的上升是由国内生产总值（GDP）的年度增长导致的，而非仅仅与之相关。来自与博茨瓦纳相邻的赞比亚的数据用于比较。
获取1960年至2012年博茨瓦纳和赞比亚的年度社会经济指标及机动车事故死亡率，并使用向量自回归分析和格兰杰因果检验进行分析。
在博茨瓦纳，人均GDP的年度变化预测了机动车事故死亡率的年度变化（=0.042）。反之则未观察到；机动车事故死亡率年度变化未预测GDP年度变化。这些发现表明，博茨瓦纳特定年份的GDP增长导致了额外的道路交通死亡事故，平均而言，GDP每增加10亿美元，道路交通死亡率就会上升。在赞比亚，年度GDP变化预测了三年后的年度死亡率变化（=0.029），但道路交通事故死亡率的年度变化也预测了三年后人均GDP的年度增长（=0.026），这表明两者趋势相关，但GDP并无因果效应。
近几十年来，赞比亚和博茨瓦纳的道路交通事故死亡人数均有所增加。但在此期间，博茨瓦纳的快速经济发展似乎推动了道路交通死亡人数的相应增加。赞比亚、安哥拉等新兴经济体有机会借鉴博茨瓦纳的经验。基于证据的道路安全干预投资应与经济发展同步进行。
