Liu Wei-chung, Matthews Louise, Chase-Topping Margo, Savill Nick J, Shaw Darren J, Woolhouse Mark E J
Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, 128 Section 2, Academia Road, Nankang, Taipei 115, Taiwan, Republic of China.
J R Soc Interface. 2007 Oct 22;4(16):917-24. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2007.0219.
Livestock movement is thought to be a risk factor for the transmission of infectious diseases of farm animals. Simple mathematical models were constructed for the transmission of Escherichia coli serogroup O157 between Scottish cattle farms, and the models were used in a preliminary exploration of factors contributing to the levels of infection reported in the field. The results suggest that cattle movement can make a significant contribution to the observed prevalence of E. coli O157-positive farms, but is not by itself sufficient for the persistence of E. coli O157. The results also suggest that cattle movements involving infected farms with cattle shedding an exceptional amount of E. coli O157, 'super-shedders', also make a substantial contribution to the prevalence of infected farms. Simulations indicate that E. coli O157 could have reached the currently observed prevalence levels in less than a decade. Implications and findings from our models are discussed in relation to possible control of E. coli O157 in Scottish cattle.
家畜移动被认为是农场动物传染病传播的一个风险因素。构建了简单的数学模型来模拟大肠杆菌O157在苏格兰养牛场之间的传播，并且这些模型被用于初步探究导致实地报告的感染水平的因素。结果表明，家畜移动对观察到的大肠杆菌O157阳性农场的患病率有显著贡献，但仅凭其本身并不足以使大肠杆菌O157持续存在。结果还表明，涉及感染农场且农场中有排出大量大肠杆菌O157的“超级排菌者”的家畜移动，也对受感染农场的患病率有很大贡献。模拟表明，大肠杆菌O157可能在不到十年的时间内达到目前观察到的流行水平。我们根据模型得出的结论和研究结果将结合苏格兰牛群中大肠杆菌O157的可能控制措施进行讨论。
