Chapagain P P, van Kessel J S, Karns J S, Wolfgang D R, Hovingh E, Nelen K A, Schukken Y H, Grohn Y T
Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Feb;136(2):263-72. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008400. Epub 2007 Apr 20.
We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.
我们建立了一个沙门氏菌传播动力学的数学模型，以描述宾夕法尼亚州一个奶牛群中发生的塞罗沙门氏菌感染疫情。这些数据是作为区域乳制品质量管理联盟与农业研究局之间合作研究项目的一部分收集的。在最初检测到该牛群中塞罗沙门氏菌感染的高流行率后，进行了频繁且密集的采样，并对疫情进行了为期1年的跟踪。数据显示，该牛群中持续存在塞罗沙门氏菌，且感染率很高。使用一组非线性微分方程对宿主和病原体的动态进行了建模。考虑了使用多个感染阶段的更符合实际分布（伽马分布）的感染期。计算了基本再生数，并讨论了其与干预策略的相关性。
