Fraser Christophe, Tomassini Joanne E, Xi Liwen, Golm Greg, Watson Michael, Giuliano Anna R, Barr Eliav, Ault Kevin A
Imperial College London, London, UK.
Vaccine. 2007 May 22;25(21):4324-33. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.02.069. Epub 2007 Mar 12.
The duration over which antibody responses persist following HPV vaccination is unknown. To estimate the longevity of responses induced by HPV-16 vaccination, two models were fitted to serum anti-HPV-16 levels measured during a 48-month study period. The first was a conventional model of antibody decay and the second was a modified model that accounts for long-lived immune memory. Using the antibody decay model, it was estimated that following administration of a three-dose regimen of HPV-16 vaccine in women aged 16-23 years, anti-HPV-16 levels will remain above those induced naturally by HPV-16 infection for 12 years, and above detectable levels for 32 years in 50% of vaccinees. With the modified model, which fitted the data better (p<0.001), it was estimated that near life-long persistence of anti-HPV-16 following vaccination is expected at titer levels above those associated with reduction of natural HPV-16 infection in 76% of these subjects, and above detectable levels in 99% of these subjects.
人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗接种后抗体反应持续的时长尚不清楚。为了评估HPV-16疫苗接种所诱导反应的持续时间，对在一项为期48个月的研究期间所测得的血清抗HPV-16水平拟合了两种模型。第一种是抗体衰减的传统模型，第二种是考虑了长期免疫记忆的改良模型。使用抗体衰减模型估计，在16至23岁女性中接种三剂次HPV-16疫苗后，抗HPV-16水平在12年内将维持在高于HPV-16自然感染所诱导的水平之上，并且在50%的接种者中，32年内将维持在可检测水平之上。使用拟合数据效果更佳（p<0.001）的改良模型估计，预计在76%的此类受试者中，接种疫苗后抗HPV-16在高于与减少自然HPV-16感染相关滴度水平时将近乎终生持续存在，在99%的此类受试者中，将维持在可检测水平之上。
