Science. 1973 Dec 7;182(4116):990-1000. doi: 10.1126/science.182.4116.990.
The clinician looking, listening, or feeling for signs of a disease may far prefer a false alarm to a miss, particularly if the disease is serious and contagious. On the other hand, he may believe that the available therapy is marginally effective, expensive, and debilitating. The pilot seeing the landing lights only when they are a few yards away may decide that his plane is adequately aligned with the runway if he is alone and familiar with that plight. He may be more inclined to circle the field before another try at landing if he has many passengers and recent memory of another plane crashing under those circumstances. The Food and Drug administrator suspecting botulism in a canned food may not want to accept even a remote threat to the public health. But he may be less clearly biased if a recent false alarm has cost a canning company millions of dollars and left some damaged reputations. The making of almost any fine discrimination is beset with such considerations of probability and utility, which are extraneous and potentially confounding when one is attempting to measure the acuity of discrimination per se. The ROC is an analytical technique, with origins in statistical decision theory and electronic detection theory, that quite effectively isolates the effects of the observer's response bias, or decision criterion, in the study of discrimination behavior. This capability, pursued through a century of psychological testing, provides a relatively pure measure of the discriminability of different stimuli and of the capacity of organisms to discriminate. The ROC also treats quantitatively the response, or decision, aspects of choice behavior. The decision parameter can then be functionally related to the probabilities of the stimulus alternatives and to the utilities of the various stimulus-response pairs, or to the observer's expectations and motivations. In separating and quantifying discrimination and decision processes, the ROC promises a more reliable and valid solution to some practical problems and enhances our understanding of the perceptual and cognitive phenomena that depend directly on these fundamental processes. In several problem areas in psychology, effects that were supposed to reflect properties of the discrimination process have been shown by the ROC analysis to reflect instead properties of the decision process.
临床医生观察、倾听或感知疾病迹象时,可能更希望出现假警报,而不是漏诊,尤其是在疾病严重且具有传染性的情况下。另一方面,他可能认为现有的治疗方法效果有限、昂贵且会使人虚弱。飞行员只有在着陆灯距离几码远时才能看到它们,如果他独自一人且熟悉这种困境,他可能会认为他的飞机与跑道对齐良好。如果他有很多乘客并且对另一架飞机在这种情况下坠毁的情况记忆犹新,他可能更倾向于在再次尝试着陆之前绕着机场飞行。食品和药物管理局怀疑罐头食品中存在肉毒杆菌毒素,即使这只是对公众健康的潜在威胁,他们也可能不会接受。但如果最近的一次假警报导致一家罐头公司损失了数百万美元,并留下了一些受损的声誉,那么他的偏见可能就不那么明显了。几乎任何精细的辨别都是如此,这些考虑因素涉及概率和效用,当试图衡量辨别力本身的敏锐度时,这些因素是多余的,并且可能会造成混淆。ROC 是一种分析技术,起源于统计决策理论和电子检测理论,它非常有效地隔离了观察者的反应偏差或决策标准在辨别行为研究中的影响。这种能力通过一个世纪的心理测试得以实现,为不同刺激的可辨别性以及生物体的辨别能力提供了相对纯粹的衡量标准。ROC 还定量地处理了选择行为的反应或决策方面。然后可以将决策参数与刺激替代物的概率和各种刺激-反应对的效用相关联,或者与观察者的期望和动机相关联。ROC 通过分离和量化辨别和决策过程,有望为一些实际问题提供更可靠和有效的解决方案,并增强我们对直接依赖这些基本过程的感知和认知现象的理解。在心理学的几个问题领域中,ROC 分析表明,原本被认为反映辨别过程特性的效应实际上反映了决策过程的特性。