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制定控制措施以减轻大流行性流感对学童的影响。

Modelling control measures to reduce the impact of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.

作者信息

Chen S-C, Liao C-M

机构信息

Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Aug;136(8):1035-45. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807009284. Epub 2007 Sep 13.

Abstract

We coupled the Wells-Riley equation and the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to quantify the impact of the combination of indoor air-based control measures of enhanced ventilation and respiratory masking in containing pandemic influenza within an elementary school. We integrated indoor environmental factors of a real elementary school and aetiological characteristics of influenza to estimate the age-specific risk of infection (P) and basic reproduction number (R(0)). We combined the enhanced ventilation rates of 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2/h and respiratory masking with 60%, 70%, 80%, and 95% efficacies, respectively, to predict the reducing level of R0. We also took into account the critical vaccination coverage rate among schoolchildren. Age-specific P and R(0) were estimated respectively to be 0.29 and 16.90; 0.56 and 16.11; 0.59 and 12.88; 0.64 and 16.09; and 0.07 and 2.80 for five age groups 4-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, and 25-45 years, indicating pre-schoolchildren have the highest transmission potential. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing the mechanism of transmission of indoor respiratory infection, population-dynamic transmission model, and the impact of infectious control programmes, is a powerful tool for risk profiling prediction of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.

摘要

我们将韦尔斯-莱利方程与易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR)模型相结合,以量化加强通风和佩戴口罩这两种基于室内空气的控制措施相结合,在一所小学内遏制大流行性流感的影响。我们整合了一所真实小学的室内环境因素和流感的病因特征,以估计特定年龄的感染风险(P)和基本繁殖数(R(0))。我们分别将0.5、1、1.5和2次/小时的加强通风率与有效率分别为60%、70%、80%和95%的呼吸口罩相结合,以预测R0的降低水平。我们还考虑了学童中的关键疫苗接种覆盖率。4-6岁、7-8岁、9-10岁、11-12岁和25-45岁这五个年龄组的特定年龄P和R(0)分别估计为0.29和16.90;0.56和16.11;0.59和12.88;0.64和16.09;以及0.07和2.80,这表明学龄前儿童具有最高的传播潜力。我们得出结论,我们采用室内呼吸道感染传播机制、种群动态传播模型和感染控制计划影响的综合方法,是预测学童中大流行性流感风险概况的有力工具。

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