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乳腺癌筛查项目分析建模：佛罗伦萨地区项目（1975 - 1986年）中的敏感性、提前期和预测价值

Modelling the analysis of breast cancer screening programmes: sensitivity, lead time and predictive value in the Florence District Programme (1975-1986).

作者信息

Paci E, Duffy S W

机构信息

Center for the Study and Prevention of Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Florence, Italy.

出版信息

Int J Epidemiol. 1991 Dec;20(4):852-8. doi: 10.1093/ije/20.4.852.

DOI:10.1093/ije/20.4.852
PMID:1800422
Abstract

Statistical indicators of early efficacy were estimated in the Florence District Programme where breast cancer screening has been carried out since 1970. Analysis of screen-detected and interval cancer data by means of statistical modelling using GLIM allowed us to estimate the mean sojourn time (1.91 and 3.97 years in 40-49 and 50-69 year old women respectively), sensitivity (about 90% for those aged 50-69) and predictive value at the prevalence screening test (about 100%). Results were compared with estimates of the same parameters in the Health Insurance Plan and Swedish Two County studies.

摘要

自1970年起就在佛罗伦萨地区项目中开展乳腺癌筛查，对早期疗效的统计指标进行了评估。通过使用GLIM进行统计建模，对筛查发现的癌症和间隔期癌症数据进行分析，使我们能够估计平均停留时间（40 - 49岁女性为1.91年，50 - 69岁女性为3.97年）、敏感性（50 - 69岁人群约为90%）以及患病率筛查试验的预测值（约为100%）。将结果与健康保险计划和瑞典双县研究中相同参数的估计值进行了比较。

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