Schmidt A H, Biesinger L, Baier D, Harf P, Rutt C
DKMS German Bone Marrow Donor Center, Tübingen, Germany.
Bone Marrow Transplant. 2008 Apr;41(7):605-12. doi: 10.1038/sj.bmt.1705950. Epub 2007 Dec 10.
With more than 11 million registered stem cell donors worldwide and limited resources for health systems, it seems questionable if investments in ongoing donor recruitment are useful. Since there is evidence that transplant outcomes are better with younger donors, the age distribution of registered donors is highly relevant in this context. One might argue that the usefulness of a donor file decreases if there is no new donor recruitment not only as a result of loss of donors who reach the age limit for donation but also since those donors who remain in the file get older. We established a multivariate model to quantify this effect and to estimate the number (designated R) of donors who must be recruited annually to keep donor file usefulness constant. The model is applied to real data from DKMS German Bone Marrow Donor Center. R exceeds the number of donors who reach the age limit by factors up to 7.3. The model can serve as an easy-to-use tool for strategic donor registry planning. Our results suggest that analyses regarding optimal size of donor registries should also include the age distribution of registered donors.
全球有超过1100万注册干细胞捐献者，而卫生系统资源有限，持续进行捐献者招募的投资是否有用似乎值得怀疑。由于有证据表明年轻捐献者的移植结果更好，在这种情况下，注册捐献者的年龄分布高度相关。有人可能会说，如果不进行新的捐献者招募，捐献者档案的效用就会降低，这不仅是因为达到捐献年龄限制的捐献者流失，还因为留在档案中的捐献者年龄越来越大。我们建立了一个多变量模型来量化这种影响，并估计每年必须招募的捐献者数量（指定为R），以保持捐献者档案的效用不变。该模型应用于德国骨髓捐献者中心DKMS的真实数据。R超过达到年龄限制的捐献者数量，倍数高达7.3。该模型可作为战略捐献者登记规划的易于使用的工具。我们的结果表明，关于捐献者登记处最佳规模的分析也应包括注册捐献者的年龄分布。
