Kruizinga A G, Briggs D, Crevel R W R, Knulst A C, van den Bosch L M C, Houben G F
TNO Quality of Life, Zeist, The Netherlands.
Food Chem Toxicol. 2008 May;46(5):1437-43. doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2007.09.109. Epub 2007 Oct 1.
Previously, TNO developed a probabilistic model to predict the likelihood of an allergic reaction, resulting in a quantitative assessment of the risk associated with unintended exposure to food allergens. The likelihood is estimated by including in the model the proportion of the population who is allergic, the proportion consuming the food and the amount consumed, the likelihood of the food containing an adventitious allergen and its concentration, and the minimum eliciting dose (MED) distribution for the allergen. In the present work a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify which parts of the model most influence the output. A shift in the distribution of the MED reflecting a more potent allergen, and an increase in the proportion of the population consuming a food, increased the number of estimated allergic reactions considerably. In contrast, the number of estimated allergic reactions hardly changed when the MEDs were based on a more severe response, or when the amount of food consumed was increased. Development of this work will help to generate a more accurate picture of the potential public health impact of allergens. It highlights areas where research is best focused, specifically the determination of minimum eliciting doses and understanding of the food choices of allergic individuals.
此前，荷兰应用科学研究院（TNO）开发了一种概率模型来预测过敏反应的可能性，从而对意外接触食物过敏原相关风险进行定量评估。通过在模型中纳入过敏人群的比例、食用该食物的人群比例及其食用量、食物中含有偶然过敏原的可能性及其浓度，以及该过敏原的最低激发剂量（MED）分布来估计可能性。在本研究中，进行了敏感性分析以确定模型的哪些部分对输出结果影响最大。反映过敏原更强效的MED分布变化，以及食用某种食物的人群比例增加，会使估计的过敏反应数量大幅增加。相比之下，当MED基于更严重的反应时，或者当食用的食物量增加时，估计的过敏反应数量几乎没有变化。这项研究的开展将有助于更准确地描绘过敏原对公众健康的潜在影响。它突出了最值得关注研究的领域，特别是最低激发剂量的确定以及对过敏个体食物选择的了解。
