Su Glenn L Sia
Department of Biology, College of Science, De La Salle University, Taft, Manila, Philippines.
Ambio. 2008 Jun;37(4):292-4. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[292:cocfad]2.0.co;2.
Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996-2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r2 = 0.377, p < 0.05). No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p > 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended.
登革热是菲律宾马尼拉大都会严重的公共卫生问题。登革热发病率上升归因于气候变化；然而，相互矛盾的报告表明登革热与气候因素之间的关系尚无定论。本研究调查了1996年至2005年期间作为影响马尼拉大都会登革热发病率的气候因素的温度和降雨情况。在10年期间（1996 - 2005年）收集了马尼拉大都会的每月登革热发病率和气候数据。通过回归分析将气候因素温度和降雨与登革热发病率联系起来。一个预测模型方程绘制了登革热发病率（Y）与降雨量（X）的关系图，这表明降雨量与登革热发病率显著相关（r2 = 0.377，p < 0.05）。登革热发病率与温度之间未建立显著相关性（p > 0.05）。有证据表明马尼拉大都会的登革热发病率随降雨模式的变化而变化。建议在降雨量大的时期加强对蚊子的监测和控制。
