Cawiding Olive R, Jeon Saebom, Tubera-Panes Donnabel, de Los Reyes V Aurelio A, Kim Jae Kyoung
Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea.
Biomedical Mathematics Group, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon 34126, Republic of Korea.
Sci Adv. 2025 Feb 14;11(7):eadq1901. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adq1901. Epub 2025 Feb 12.
Dengue fever poses major public health challenges, with climate change complicating control efforts. Yet, the full extent of climate change's impact on dengue remains elusive. To investigate this, we used an advanced causal inference method to 16 diverse climatic regions in the Philippines. This method is capable of detecting nonlinear and joint effects of temperature and rainfall to dengue incidence. We found that temperature consistently increased dengue incidence throughout all the regions, while rainfall effects differed depending on the variation in dry season length, a factor previously overlooked. Specifically, our results showed that regions with low variation in dry season length experience a negative impact of rainfall on dengue incidence likely due to strong flushing effect on mosquito habitats, while regions with high variation in dry season length experience a positive impact, likely due to increased mosquito breeding sites. Our findings emphasize the need for tailored prevention strategies based on local climate conditions, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.
登革热给公共卫生带来了重大挑战，气候变化使防控工作变得更加复杂。然而，气候变化对登革热的全面影响仍不明确。为了对此进行调查，我们运用了一种先进的因果推断方法，对菲律宾16个不同的气候区域展开研究。该方法能够检测温度和降雨对登革热发病率的非线性和联合效应。我们发现，在所有区域，温度持续增加登革热发病率，而降雨的影响则因旱季长度的变化而异，这是一个此前被忽视的因素。具体而言，我们的结果表明，旱季长度变化较小的区域，降雨对登革热发病率有负面影响，这可能是由于对蚊子栖息地的强烈冲刷作用；而旱季长度变化较大的区域，降雨则有正面影响，这可能是由于蚊子繁殖地增加。我们的研究结果强调了需要根据当地气候条件制定针对性的预防策略，而不是采取一刀切的方法。
