Perrin Andrew J, Smolek Sondra J
Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3210, USA.
Soc Sci Res. 2009 Mar;38(1):134-45. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2008.09.001.
First proposed by Mueller, the theory of the "rally effect" predicts that public support for government officials will increase when an event occurs that (1) is international; (2) involves the United States; and (3) is specific, dramatic, and sharply focused [Mueller, J.E. 1973. War, Presidents, & Public Opinion. New York: John Wiley & Sons., p. 209). Using the natural experiment of a large (N= 15,127) survey of young adults ages 18-27 that was in the field during the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, we confirm the existence of a rally effect on trust in government as well as its subsequent decay. We then use a predictive modeling approach to investigate individual-level dynamics of rallying around the flag and anti-rallying in the face of the national threat. By disaggregating predictors of rallying, we demonstrate remarkably different patterns of response to the attacks based on sex and, particularly, race. The results confirm expectations of national threat inciting a rally effect, but indicate that the dynamics of this rally effect are complex and race and gender-dependent. The article offers previously-unavailable insights into the dynamics of rallying and trust in government.
“团结效应”理论最早由米勒提出，该理论预测，当发生以下事件时，公众对政府官员的支持将会增加：（1）具有国际性；（2）涉及美国；（3）具体、重大且焦点明确[米勒，J.E. 1973年。《战争、总统与公众舆论》。纽约：约翰·威利父子出版公司，第209页]。通过对18至27岁的年轻人进行大规模（N = 15,127）调查这一自然实验，该调查于2001年9月11日恐怖袭击发生期间开展，我们证实了团结效应在对政府信任方面的存在及其随后的衰减。然后，我们采用预测建模方法来研究在面对国家威胁时围绕国旗团结以及反团结的个体层面动态。通过对团结预测因素进行分解，我们展示了基于性别，尤其是种族，对袭击的截然不同的反应模式。结果证实了国家威胁引发团结效应的预期，但表明这种团结效应的动态是复杂的且取决于种族和性别。本文提供了此前无法获得的关于团结动态以及对政府信任的见解。
