Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248, USA.
Alcohol Alcohol. 2010 Jan-Feb;45(1):17-24. doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agp066. Epub 2009 Oct 6.
Alcohol expectancies are strong concurrent predictors of alcohol use and problems, but the current study addressed their unique power to predict from adolescence to midlife.
Long-term longitudinal data from the national British Cohort Study 1970 (N = 2146, 59.8% female) were used to predict alcohol use and misuse in the mid-30s by alcohol expectancies reported in adolescence.
Cohort members with more positive alcohol expectancies at age 16 reported greater alcohol quantity concurrently, increases in alcohol quantity relative to their peers between ages 16 and 35, and a higher likelihood of lifetime and previous year alcohol misuse at age 35, independent of gender, social class in family of origin, age of alcohol use onset, adolescent delinquent behavior and age 16 exam scores.
Alcohol expectancies were strong proximal predictors of alcohol use and predicted relative change in alcohol use and misuse across two decades into middle adulthood.
酒精期望是酒精使用和问题的强有力的同期预测指标，但本研究旨在从青春期到中年期间，探讨其对酒精使用和问题的独特预测能力。
利用英国全国队列研究 1970 年的长期纵向数据（N=2146，女性占 59.8%），通过青春期报告的酒精期望，预测 30 多岁时的酒精使用和滥用情况。
在 16 岁时具有更积极的酒精期望的队列成员，同期报告的酒精摄入量更大，与 16 至 35 岁期间同龄人相比，酒精摄入量增加，并且在 35 岁时终生和前一年酒精滥用的可能性更高，独立于性别、原籍家庭的社会阶层、饮酒起始年龄、青少年犯罪行为和 16 岁考试成绩。
酒精期望是酒精使用的强烈近期预测指标，可预测未来 20 年进入中年时期的酒精使用和滥用的相对变化。
