Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, Paddington, London, W2 1PG, UK.
Int J Public Health. 2010 Apr;55(2):85-96. doi: 10.1007/s00038-009-0091-1. Epub 2009 Nov 26.
Climate change is now thought to be unequivocal, while its potential effects on global and public health cannot be ignored. However, the complexities of the causal webs, the dynamics of the interactions and unpredictability mean that climate change presents new challenges to epidemiology and magnifies existing methodological problems. This article reviews a number of such challenges, including topics such as exposure assessment, bias, confounding, causal complexities and uncertainties, with examples and recommendations provided where appropriate. Hence, epidemiology must continue to adapt by developing new approaches and the integration of other disciplines such as geography and climatology, with an emphasis on informing policy-making and disseminating knowledge beyond the field.
气候变化现在被认为是毫无疑问的,而其对全球和公共卫生的潜在影响不容忽视。然而,因果关系的复杂性、相互作用的动态性和不可预测性意味着气候变化给流行病学带来了新的挑战,并放大了现有的方法学问题。本文综述了一些此类挑战,包括暴露评估、偏差、混杂、因果关系复杂性和不确定性等主题,并在适当的情况下提供了示例和建议。因此,流行病学必须继续通过开发新方法和整合其他学科(如地理学和气候学)来适应,重点是为决策提供信息并在该领域之外传播知识。