Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, San Francisco, CA 94103, USA.
J Safety Res. 2009;40(6):443-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2009.10.001. Epub 2009 Oct 28.
U.S. teenaged and young-adult drivers' elevated rates of fatal traffic crash involvement typically are attributed to biological and developmental risk-taking associated with young age. However, young drivers differ from older ones along several sociodemographic dimensions, including higher poverty rates and greater concentration in poorer areas, which may contribute to their risks.
Using Fatality Analysis Reporting System, Census, and Federal Highway Administration data for 1994-2007, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted of fatal motor-vehicle crash involvements per 100 million miles driven by driver age (16 through 74) and state along with 14 driver-, vehicle-, and state-level variables.
Driver age was not a significant predictor of fatal crash risk once several factors associated with high poverty status (more occupants per vehicle, smaller vehicle size, older vehicle age, lower state per-capita income, lower state population density, more motor-vehicle driving, and lower education levels) were controlled. These risk factors were significantly associated with each other and with higher crash involvement among adult drivers as well.
The strong association between fatal crash risk and environments of poverty as operationalized by substandard vehicle and driving conditions suggests a major overlooked traffic safety factor particularly affecting young drivers.
美国青少年和年轻成年人驾驶员致命交通碰撞发生率较高,通常归因于与年龄相关的生物学和发展风险因素。然而,年轻驾驶员在几个社会人口统计学维度上与年长驾驶员不同,包括更高的贫困率和更集中在贫困地区,这可能导致他们面临更高的风险。
利用 1994-2007 年的致命事故分析报告系统、人口普查和联邦公路管理局的数据,对每行驶 1 亿英里的驾驶员年龄(16 岁至 74 岁)和州的致命机动车碰撞发生率进行了单变量和多变量回归分析,同时考虑了 14 个驾驶员、车辆和州级别的变量。
一旦控制了与高贫困状态相关的几个因素(每辆车的乘客更多、车辆尺寸更小、车辆年龄更大、州人均收入更低、州人口密度更低、更多的机动车驾驶和更低的教育水平),驾驶员年龄就不是致命碰撞风险的显著预测因素。这些风险因素彼此之间以及与成年驾驶员更高的碰撞发生率显著相关。
致命碰撞风险与贫困环境之间的强烈关联,表现为车辆和驾驶条件的标准降低,这表明存在一个主要被忽视的交通安全因素,特别是对年轻驾驶员有影响。