Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland 20892-8315, USA.
Cancer. 2010 Feb 1;116(3):544-73. doi: 10.1002/cncr.24760.
BACKGROUND: The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information regarding cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This year's report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights the use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions. METHODS: Information regarding invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR; and information on deaths was obtained from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (based on the year 2000 US population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term trends (1975-2006) and for short-term fixed-interval trends (1997-2006). All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined significantly declined (P < .05) in the most recent time period for men and women overall and for most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the 3 most common cancers in men (ie, lung and prostate cancers and CRC) and for 2 of the 3 leading cancers in women (ie, breast cancer and CRC). The long-term trends for lung cancer mortality in women had smaller and smaller increases until 2003, when there was a change to a nonsignificant decline. Microsimulation modeling demonstrates that declines in CRC death rates are consistent with a relatively large contribution from screening and with a smaller but demonstrable impact of risk factor reductions and improved treatments. These declines are projected to continue if risk factor modification, screening, and treatment remain at current rates, but they could be accelerated further with favorable trends in risk factors and higher utilization of screening and optimal treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, rising incidence and mortality for some cancers are of concern.
背景:美国癌症协会、疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)、美国国家癌症研究所(NCI)和北美癌症登记协会(NAACCR)每年合作,提供美国癌症发病和趋势的最新信息。本年度报告包括结直肠癌(CRC)发病率和死亡率的趋势,并重点介绍了使用微观模拟模型作为解释过去趋势和预测未来趋势的工具,以协助癌症控制规划和政策决策。
方法:NCI、CDC 和 NAACCR 提供了关于侵袭性癌症的信息;CDC 的国家卫生统计中心提供了关于死亡的信息。使用 Joinpoint 分析长期趋势(1975-2006 年)和短期固定间隔趋势(1997-2006 年),估计所有癌症和前 15 种癌症的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率的年变化率(基于 2000 年美国人口标准)。所有统计检验均为双侧。
结果:男性和女性的所有癌症的发病率和死亡率在最近的时间段内都显著下降(P <.05),而且大多数种族和民族群体也都出现了这种下降。这些下降主要归因于男性三种最常见癌症(即肺癌、前列腺癌和 CRC)和女性三种主要癌症中的两种(即乳腺癌和 CRC)的发病率和死亡率的下降。女性肺癌死亡率的长期趋势显示,直到 2003 年,其上升幅度逐渐减小,之后转为无显著下降。微观模拟模型表明,CRC 死亡率的下降与筛查的贡献相对较大有关,与危险因素减少和治疗效果改善的影响较小但可证明有关。如果危险因素的改变、筛查和治疗仍保持当前水平,这种下降趋势预计将继续,但如果危险因素的趋势有利,筛查和最佳治疗的利用率提高,下降趋势可能会进一步加快。
结论:尽管整体癌症发病率和死亡率的下降令人鼓舞,但某些癌症的发病率和死亡率上升令人担忧。
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