National Institute of Malaria Research (ICMR), Dwarka, New Delhi, India.
Parasitol Res. 2010 Mar;106(4):763-73. doi: 10.1007/s00436-010-1767-4. Epub 2010 Feb 13.
It is unequivocal that climate change is happening and is likely to expand the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue etc. to higher altitudes and latitudes. India is endemic for six major vector-borne diseases (VBD) namely malaria, dengue, chikungunya, filariasis, Japanese encephalitis and visceral leishmaniasis. Over the years, there has been reduction in the incidence of almost all the diseases except chikungunya which has re-emerged since 2005. The upcoming issue of climate change has surfaced as a new threat and challenge for ongoing efforts to contain vector-borne diseases. There is greater awareness about the potential impacts of climate change on VBDs in India and research institutions and national authorities have initiated actions to assess the impacts. Studies undertaken in India on malaria in the context of climate change impact reveal that transmission windows in Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern states are likely to extend temporally by 2-3 months and in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu there may be reduction in transmission windows. Using PRECIS model (driven by HadRM2) at the resolution of 50 x 50 Km for daily temperature and relative humidity for year 2050, it was found that Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam will still remain malarious and transmission windows will open up in Himachal Pradesh and north-eastern states etc. Impact of climate change on dengue also reveals increase in transmission with 2 C rise in temperature in northern India. Re-emergence of kala-azar in northern parts of India and reappearance of chikungunya mainly in southern states of India has also been discussed. The possible need to address the threat and efforts made in India have also been highlighted. The paper concludes with a positive lead that with better preparedness threat of climate change on vector-borne diseases may be negated.
气候变化无疑正在发生，并可能导致几种虫媒传染病（如疟疾和登革热等）向更高海拔和纬度地区扩展。印度流行六种主要的虫媒传染病（VBD），包括疟疾、登革热、基孔肯雅热、丝虫病、日本脑炎和内脏利什曼病。多年来，除了自 2005 年以来再次出现的基孔肯雅热外，几乎所有疾病的发病率都有所下降。即将到来的气候变化问题已经成为控制虫媒传染病工作的新威胁和挑战。印度越来越意识到气候变化对 VBD 的潜在影响，研究机构和国家当局已经采取行动评估其影响。印度在气候变化影响背景下开展的疟疾研究表明，旁遮普邦、哈里亚纳邦、查谟和克什米尔以及东北部各州的传播窗口可能会延长 2-3 个月，而奥里萨邦、安得拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦的传播窗口可能会减少。使用 PRECIS 模型（由 HadRM2 驱动），分辨率为 50 x 50 Km，用于 2050 年的日温度和相对湿度，发现奥里萨邦、西孟加拉邦和阿萨姆邦南部仍将存在疟疾，而喜马偕尔邦和东北部各州等地区的传播窗口将打开。气候变化对登革热的影响也表明，印度北部的温度升高 2°C，传播将增加。印度北部的黑热病再次出现，印度南部的基孔肯雅热再次出现，也已经讨论过。还强调了可能需要应对威胁以及印度所做的努力。本文以积极的态度结束，即通过更好的准备，气候变化对虫媒传染病的威胁可能会被消除。
