Budke Christine M, Slater Margaret R
Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biological Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-4458, USA.
J Appl Anim Welf Sci. 2009;12(4):277-92. doi: 10.1080/10888700903163419.
This study constructed matrix population models to explore feral cat population growth for a hypothetical population (a) in the absence of intervention; (b) with a traditional surgical sterilization-based trap, neuter, and return program; and (c) with a single treatment 3-year nonsurgical contraception program. Model outcomes indicated that cessation of population growth would require surgical sterilization for greater than 51% of adult and 51% of juvenile (<1 year) intact female cats annually, assuming an approximate 3-year mean life span. After the population stabilizes, this would equate to sterilizing approximately 14% of the total female population per year or having approximately 71% of the total female and 81% of the adult female population sterilized at all times. In the absence of juvenile sterilization, 91% of adult intact females would need to be sterilized annually to halt population growth. In comparison, with a 3-year nonsurgical contraception program, an annual contraception rate of 60% of female juvenile and adult intact cats would be required to halt population growth, assuming that treated cats were retrapped at the same rate after 3 years.
本研究构建了矩阵种群模型，以探讨在以下三种假设情况下野生猫种群的增长情况：(a) 无干预；(b) 实施基于传统手术绝育的诱捕、绝育和放归计划；(c) 实施单次治疗的为期3年的非手术避孕计划。模型结果表明，假设平均寿命约为3年，若要停止种群增长，每年需要对超过51%的成年未绝育母猫和51%的幼年（<1岁）未绝育母猫进行手术绝育。种群稳定后，这相当于每年对约14%的母猫进行绝育，或始终对约71%的母猫和81%的成年母猫进行绝育。若不对幼年猫进行绝育，每年需要对91%的成年未绝育母猫进行绝育才能停止种群增长。相比之下，对于为期3年的非手术避孕计划，假设治疗后的猫在3年后以相同的速率再次被捕，每年需要对60%的幼年和成年未绝育母猫进行避孕才能停止种群增长。
