J Water Health. 2010 Sep;8(3):561-71. doi: 10.2166/wh.2010.049. Epub 2010 Mar 9.
To investigate the spatial relationship between climate variability and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis notifications in New Zealand between 1997 and 2006.
Negative binomial regression was used to analyse spatial relationships between cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis notifications in New Zealand between 1997 and 2006, and climatological average rainfall and temperature at the Census Area Unit (CAU) level. The quality of domestic water supplies, urban-rural status and deprivation were included as covariates.
Giardiasis: There was a positive association between rainfall and giardiasis and between temperature and giardiasis.Cryptosporidiosis: There was a positive association between rainfall and cryptosporidiosis and a negative association between temperature and cryptosporidiosis. The effect of rainfall was modified by the quality of the domestic water supply.
These findings suggest that climate variability affects protozoan disease rates in New Zealand. However, predicting the effect of climate change from this study is difficult, as these results suggest that the projected increases in temperature and rainfall may have opposing effects on cryptosporidiosis rates. Nevertheless, water supply quality appeared to modify the impact of increased rainfall on cryptosporidiosis rates. This finding suggests that improving water supply quality in New Zealand could reduce vulnerability to the impact of climate change on protozoan diseases.
研究 1997 年至 2006 年间新西兰气候变化与隐孢子虫病和贾第鞭毛虫病之间的空间关系。
采用负二项回归分析 1997 年至 2006 年间新西兰隐孢子虫病和贾第鞭毛虫病与气候平均降雨量和温度的空间关系，分析采用普查区单元（CAU）水平。纳入国内供水质量、城乡状况和贫困程度作为协变量。
贾第鞭毛虫病：降雨量与贾第鞭毛虫病呈正相关，温度与贾第鞭毛虫病呈负相关。隐孢子虫病：降雨量与隐孢子虫病呈正相关，温度与隐孢子虫病呈负相关。降雨量的影响受国内供水质量的调节。
这些发现表明，气候变化影响新西兰原生动物病的发病率。然而，从这项研究中预测气候变化的影响是困难的，因为这些结果表明，预计的温度和降雨量增加可能对隐孢子虫病的发病率产生相反的影响。然而，供水质量似乎调节了增加降雨量对隐孢子虫病发病率的影响。这一发现表明，改善新西兰的供水质量可以降低气候变化对原生动物病的影响的脆弱性。
