School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, Central Queensland University, Queensland, Australia.
PLoS One. 2019 Jul 22;14(7):e0220134. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220134. eCollection 2019.
Dengue is a public health concern in northern Queensland, Australia. This study aimed to explore spatial and temporal characteristics of dengue cases in Queensland, and to identify high-risk areas after a 2009 dengue outbreak at fine spatial scale and thereby help in planning resource allocation for dengue control measures. Notifications of dengue cases for Queensland at Statistical Local Area (SLA) level were obtained from Queensland Health for the period 2010 to 2015. Spatial and temporal analysis was performed, including plotting of seasonal distribution and decomposition of cases, using regression models and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence. Both the space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) and Geographical Information System (GIS) were used to identify and visualise the space-time clusters of dengue cases at SLA level. A total of 1,773 dengue cases with 632 (35.65%) autochthonous cases and 1,141 (64.35%) overseas acquired cases were satisfied for the analysis in Queensland during the study period. Both autochthonous and overseas acquired cases occurred more frequently in autumn and showed a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The most likely cluster of autochthonous cases (Relative Risk, RR = 54.52, p<0.001) contained 50 SLAs in the north-east region of the state around Cairns occurred during 2013-2015. A cluster of overseas cases (RR of 60.81, p<0.001) occurred in a suburb of Brisbane during 2012 to 2013. These results show a clear spatiotemporal trend of recent dengue cases in Queensland, providing evidence in directing future investigations on risk factors of this disease and effective interventions in the high-risk areas.
在澳大利亚昆士兰州北部，登革热是一个公共卫生关注点。本研究旨在探索昆士兰州登革热病例的时空特征，并在 2009 年登革热爆发后确定高风险地区，从而有助于规划登革热控制措施的资源分配。本研究从昆士兰州卫生局获得了 2010 年至 2015 年期间按统计区域（SLA）划分的登革热病例通知。采用回归模型进行时空分析，包括绘制季节性分布和病例分解图，并创建累积发病率的专题地图。同时使用时空扫描统计（SaTScan）和地理信息系统（GIS）来识别和可视化 SLA 层面登革热病例的时空聚类。本研究共纳入了 1773 例登革热病例，其中 632 例（35.65%）为本地病例，1141 例（64.35%）为输入性病例。在研究期间，昆士兰州的这两个病例组都更常发生于秋季，且在整个研究期间呈地理扩展趋势。最有可能的本地病例聚集区（相对风险，RR=54.52，p<0.001）包含了该州东北部围绕凯恩斯的 50 个 SLA，发生于 2013-2015 年。一个输入性病例聚集区（RR 为 60.81，p<0.001）发生在布里斯班的一个郊区，发生于 2012 年至 2013 年。这些结果显示了昆士兰州近期登革热病例的明显时空趋势，为未来研究该疾病的危险因素和在高风险地区采取有效干预措施提供了证据。
