The Centre for Tick-Borne Diseases, Budapest, Hungary.
Inflamm Res. 2010 Nov;59(11):959-64. doi: 10.1007/s00011-010-0209-1. Epub 2010 May 13.
By using the published incidence of Lyme borreliosis in endemic regions of the World, and the sensitivity and specificity data of the best Lyme serological tests, we computed the positive predictive value of Borrelia burgdorferi antibody testing.
The calculation of predictive value was based on Bayes' theorem. We also analyzed the frequency distribution of the specific and non-specific symptoms and complaints of 27,194 patients sent to the Centre for Tick-borne Diseases in Budapest from 1986 to 2008.
This evaluation demonstrated that practitioners often use Lyme serology in a "trial and error" way, without any reasonable ground. According to our calculation the positive predictive value of the best Lyme antibody tests if applied in this way is <9.1%.
Our study suggests that the present practice of applying Lyme serological tests may result in more harm than benefit.
利用世界范围内莱姆病流行地区的已发表发病率，以及最佳莱姆血清学检测的灵敏度和特异性数据，我们计算了伯氏疏螺旋体抗体检测的阳性预测值。
预测值的计算基于贝叶斯定理。我们还分析了从 1986 年至 2008 年送往布达佩斯蜱传疾病中心的 27194 名患者的特异性和非特异性症状和主诉的频率分布。
这项评估表明，临床医生经常在没有合理依据的情况下，以“试错”的方式使用莱姆血清学检测。根据我们的计算，如果以这种方式应用最佳莱姆抗体检测，其阳性预测值<9.1%。
我们的研究表明，目前应用莱姆血清学检测的做法可能弊大于利。
