1991-1996 年波兰因缺血性心脏病导致的死亡率，按照 1997 年以来使用的编码系统进行估算。

Mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Poland in 1991-1996 estimated by the coding system used since 1997.

机构信息

Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński Institute of Cardiology, Warsaw, Poland.

出版信息

Kardiol Pol. 2010 May;68(5):520-7.

PMID:20491012

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Official statistical data on deaths due to heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in Poland in 1991-2005 are not consistent because of the changes in the coding system introduced after 1996. Between 1996 and 1999, the number of deaths due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) increased considerably, while the number of deaths due to atherosclerosis decreased. Considering the magnitude of these changes, any analyses of mortality trends in these periods treating these data as consistent are practically impossible. This also applies to international comparisons of IHD mortality data.

AIM

To develop a method of estimating the number of deaths that would approximate the real numbers of deaths due to IHD in Poland in 1991-2005.

METHODS

Sets of individual death records from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and data from the WHO Mortality Database were used. The IHD mortality data documented officially in Poland were obtained using two different coding systems used consistently before and since 1997. IHD mortality was highly consistent in each of these periods. The applied version of the regression model makes use of both these properties.

RESULTS

The system of certifying death causes which was used in Poland before 1997 resulted in underestimating the real number of IHD deaths in Poland in 1991 by around 35% compared to the numbers estimated using a more correct system of certifying death causes used after 1997. Approximate relative error of the official number of deaths due to IHD in 1991 in age groups of 45-54, 65-74, 75-84, and > or = 85 years was 30%, 24%, 49% and 67%, respectively, in men, and 27%, 25%, 52% and 72%, respectively, in women.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in the IHD mortality rate in Poland in 1996-1999 noted by CSO was an apparent phenomenon resulting from inaccuracies in coding death causes before 1997. These inaccuracies were mainly related to IHD, atherosclerosis and cerebrovascular disease. Our method enabled correction of the number of deaths between 1991 and 1996, yielding figures much closer to the real ones. Using this method, it is also possible to assess long-term mortality trends, including evaluation of the effectiveness of different methods of treatment and prevention. In particular, it also refers to the use of the IMPACT model to analyse reasons of changes in IHD mortality in Poland.

摘要

背景

由于 1996 年后引入的编码系统发生变化，波兰 1991-2005 年心脏病和脑血管疾病死亡的官方统计数据不一致。1996 年至 1999 年期间，缺血性心脏病（IHD）死亡人数大幅增加，而动脉粥样硬化导致的死亡人数减少。考虑到这些变化的规模，任何将这些数据视为一致的死亡率趋势分析在实际上都是不可能的。这同样适用于国际间对 IHD 死亡率数据的比较。

目的

开发一种估算方法，以近似估计波兰 1991-2005 年因 IHD 而死亡的实际人数。

方法

使用中央统计局（CSO）的个人死亡记录集和世界卫生组织死亡率数据库的数据。使用在 1997 年之前和之后一直使用的两种不同编码系统，获得了波兰官方记录的 IHD 死亡率数据。在这两个时期，IHD 死亡率都非常一致。所应用的回归模型版本利用了这两个特性。

结果

在 1997 年之前在波兰使用的死因认证系统导致 1991 年波兰因 IHD 而死亡的实际人数低估了约 35%，而使用 1997 年后更正确的死因认证系统估计的数字则更高。在 45-54、65-74、75-84 和≥85 岁的年龄组中，1991 年官方 IHD 死亡人数的相对误差分别为 30%、24%、49%和 67%，男性分别为 27%、25%、52%和 72%，女性分别为 27%、25%、52%和 72%。

结论

CSO 指出的 1996-1999 年波兰 IHD 死亡率的上升是由于 1997 年之前死因编码不准确而导致的明显现象。这些不准确主要与 IHD、动脉粥样硬化和脑血管疾病有关。我们的方法使 1991 年至 1996 年之间的死亡人数得以纠正，结果更接近实际数字。使用这种方法，还可以评估长期死亡率趋势，包括评估不同治疗和预防方法的效果。特别是，它还涉及到使用 IMPACT 模型来分析波兰 IHD 死亡率变化的原因。