Funk Sebastian, Bansal Shweta, Bauch Chris T, Eames Ken T D, Edmunds W John, Galvani Alison P, Klepac Petra
Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:21-5. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.005. Epub 2014 Sep 28.
Traditionally, the spread of infectious diseases in human populations has been modelled with static parameters. These parameters, however, can change when individuals change their behaviour. If these changes are themselves influenced by the disease dynamics, there is scope for mechanistic models of behaviour to improve our understanding of this interaction. Here, we present challenges in modelling changes in behaviour relating to disease dynamics, specifically: how to incorporate behavioural changes in models of infectious disease dynamics, how to inform measurement of relevant behaviour to parameterise such models, and how to determine the impact of behavioural changes on observed disease dynamics.
传统上，人类群体中传染病的传播是用静态参数来建模的。然而，当个体改变其行为时，这些参数可能会发生变化。如果这些变化本身受到疾病动态的影响，那么行为机制模型就有可能增进我们对这种相互作用的理解。在此，我们提出了在对与疾病动态相关的行为变化进行建模时所面临的挑战，具体包括：如何在传染病动态模型中纳入行为变化，如何为参数化此类模型的相关行为测量提供信息，以及如何确定行为变化对观察到的疾病动态的影响。
