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预测关节健康状况的效用:一个通用框架和一个新的非参数估计器。

Predicting utility for joint health states: a general framework and a new nonparametric estimator.

机构信息

Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.

出版信息

Med Decis Making. 2010 Sep-Oct;30(5):E29-39. doi: 10.1177/0272989X10374508. Epub 2010 Jul 19.

Abstract

Measuring utility is important in clinical decision making and cost-effectiveness analysis because utilities are often used to compute quality-adjusted life expectancy, a metric used in measuring the effectiveness of health care programs and medical interventions. Predicting utility for joint health states has become an increasingly valuable research topic because of the aging of the population and the increasing prevalence of comorbidities. Although multiplicative, minimum, and additive estimators are commonly used in practice, research has shown that they are all biased. In this study, the authors propose a general framework for predicting utility for joint health states. This framework includes these 3 nonparametric estimators as special cases. A new simple nonparametric estimator, the adjusted decrement estimator, [U(ij) = U(min) - U(min) (1 - U(i) )(1 - U(j) )], is introduced under the proposed framework. When applied to 2 independent data sources, the new nonparametric estimator not only generated unbiased prediction of utilities for joint health states but also had the least root mean squared error and highest concordance when compared with other nonparametric and parametric estimators. Further research and validation of this new estimator are needed.

摘要

衡量效用在临床决策和成本效益分析中很重要,因为效用通常用于计算质量调整生命期望,这是衡量医疗保健计划和医疗干预措施效果的指标。由于人口老龄化和合并症的发病率不断上升,预测关节健康状况的效用已成为一个日益有价值的研究课题。虽然乘法、最小和加法估计器在实践中经常使用,但研究表明它们都是有偏差的。在这项研究中,作者提出了一种用于预测联合健康状况效用的通用框架。该框架包括这 3 个非参数估计器作为特例。在提出的框架下,引入了一种新的简单非参数估计器,调整后的递减估计器[U(ij) = U(min) - U(min) (1 - U(i) )(1 - U(j) )]。当应用于 2 个独立的数据源时,与其他非参数和参数估计器相比,新的非参数估计器不仅对联合健康状况的效用进行了无偏预测,而且具有最小的均方根误差和最高的一致性。需要进一步研究和验证这个新的估计器。

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