Stein Robert M, Dueñas-Osorio Leonardo, Subramanian Devika
Rice University.
Soc Sci Q. 2010;91(3):816-34. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00721.x.
This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions.
We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005.
We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas.
Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.
本文对恶劣天气期间的疏散决策提供了更广泛的视角。具体而言，这项工作侧重于揭示个人疏散决策的决定因素。
我们借鉴了2005年9月24日丽塔飓风登陆后对休斯顿大都市地区八个县居民进行的一项调查。
我们发现疏散决策受到一系列不同参数的影响，包括感知到的风灾风险、媒体和邻居的影响以及对疏散区的认知，这些参数往往与政府官员用于下令或建议疏散的主要风险衡量标准之一（即风暴潮）不一致。我们还发现，感知到的风险及其对疏散行为的影响是一种局部现象，在同一地理位置的个人之间更容易传播，居住在官方风险区域内外的居民情况就是如此。
谁会疏散以及为何疏散部分取决于居住地点，因为在即将到来的飓风威胁区域内，风险认知并非均匀分布，而且相同的信息来源和内容对疏散行为的影响也不尽相同。因此，关于风险以及何时、何地以及如何疏散或就地避难的劝说工作应从社区层面开展，而不是来自媒体或政府官员的笼统声明。我们的研究结果还提出了重要的政策问题（在讨论部分列出），需要负责组织和实施疏散计划的人员进一步研究和考虑。
