Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Aug;139(8):1181-90. doi: 10.1017/S095026881000230X. Epub 2010 Oct 14.
Mathematical models of influenza pandemics are sensitive to changes in contact rates between individuals. We conducted population-based telephone surveys in four North Carolina counties to determine the number of social interactions between individuals during the 2007-2008 influenza season. Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel medical practices. Among 3845 adults, the number of social contacts varied with age, was lower on weekends than on weekdays, and further decreased during school holiday periods. Adults with influenza-like illnesses had fewer social contacts. Adults' contacts in the community setting increased during periods of peak influenza activity. Among 290 children, potential contacts (i.e. other people in the same location) were lowest among preschool-age children and decreased on weekends and during school holidays. In adjusted analyses, children's potential social contacts did not change during periods of peak influenza activity. These results should be useful for modelling influenza epidemics and pandemics and in planning mitigation and response strategies.
流感大流行的数学模型对个体之间的接触率变化敏感。我们在北卡罗来纳州的四个县进行了基于人群的电话调查，以确定在 2007-2008 年流感季节个体之间的社交互动次数。流感活动通过哨点医疗实践进行监测。在 3845 名成年人中，社交接触的次数随年龄而变化，周末比工作日少，在学校假期期间进一步减少。患有流感样疾病的成年人社交接触较少。在流感活动高峰期，成年人在社区环境中的接触增加。在 290 名儿童中，潜在接触者（即在同一地点的其他人）在学龄前儿童中最低，并在周末和学校假期减少。在调整后的分析中，儿童的潜在社交接触在流感活动高峰期没有变化。这些结果对于模拟流感流行和大流行以及制定缓解和应对策略非常有用。
