Møller H, Boyle P, Maisonneuve P, La Vecchia C, Jensen O M
Danish Cancer Registry, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen.
Cancer Causes Control. 1990 Sep;1(2):181-8. doi: 10.1007/BF00053171.
Age-specific mortality rates from esophageal cancer in men are considered by year of birth in European countries with different levels of alcohol consumption. In countries with high and increasing levels of alcohol consumption (Denmark, Hungary, Federal Republic of Germany, and Czechoslovakia) successive birth cohorts born after about 1910 experience increasing mortality from esophageal cancer in all age-groups. No clear trend in esophageal cancer mortality was observed in countries starting from lower levels of alcohol consumption, even in the presence of increasing consumption (Sweden, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Poland, UK). There was an apparent threshold around 8 l of ethanol per capita per year. Likewise, no upward trend in esophageal cancer mortality was observed in countries with high and stable alcohol consumption (France, Italy, Portugal). These findings are in agreement with results of analytic epidemiologic studies which indicate that esophageal cancer mortality is only slightly affected by moderate doses of alcohol, but rises steeply with consumption of large quantities. The incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer is likely to increase further in the future in countries where the level of alcohol consumption was relatively high in 1960 and where consumption increased further in the 1960s and 1970s.
在不同酒精消费水平的欧洲国家，按出生年份对男性食管癌的年龄别死亡率进行了研究。在酒精消费水平高且呈上升趋势的国家（丹麦、匈牙利、德意志联邦共和国和捷克斯洛伐克），1910年以后出生的连续出生队列在所有年龄组中食管癌死亡率都在上升。在酒精消费水平较低的国家，即使酒精消费呈上升趋势（瑞典、挪威、芬兰、荷兰、波兰、英国），也未观察到食管癌死亡率有明显趋势。每年人均乙醇摄入量约8升左右似乎是一个阈值。同样，在酒精消费水平高且稳定的国家（法国、意大利、葡萄牙），也未观察到食管癌死亡率呈上升趋势。这些发现与分析性流行病学研究结果一致，这些研究表明，适量饮酒对食管癌死亡率影响甚微，但大量饮酒时死亡率会急剧上升。在1960年酒精消费水平相对较高且在20世纪60年代和70年代酒精消费进一步增加的国家，未来食管癌的发病率和死亡率可能会进一步上升。
