Laboratory of Epidemiology, Demography and Biometry, National Institute on Aging, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA.
J Am Geriatr Soc. 2010 Oct;58 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):S337-42. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2010.02938.x.
An important challenge in epidemiology is the difficulty in inferring causality from observational studies. Even the best longitudinal studies have limitations in this regard, and when clinical trials are feasible, they will provide more-definite evidence of causality, but even when clinical trials are feasible, a large amount can be learned about the disease process, assessment techniques, subject selection criteria, and the effect of potential interventions from longitudinal studies. This review covers the theoretical issues supporting the value and limitations of longitudinal studies, the practical utilization in clinical trials of different aspects of knowledge that can be gained from longitudinal studies, critical issues in the translation of longitudinal observational studies into clinical trials, and the value of observational studies in broadening the applicability of specific trials. Relevant issues are illustrated with examples of unsuccessful and successful trials, with a major emphasis on clinical trials of physical activity in older persons.
流行病学中的一个重要挑战是难以从观察性研究中推断因果关系。即使是最好的纵向研究在这方面也存在局限性,而当临床试验可行时,它们将提供更明确的因果关系证据,但即使当临床试验可行时,也可以从纵向研究中了解到大量关于疾病过程、评估技术、受试者选择标准以及潜在干预措施效果的信息。这篇综述涵盖了支持纵向研究价值和局限性的理论问题,以及在临床试验中实际利用从纵向研究中获得的不同方面知识的方法,将纵向观察性研究转化为临床试验的关键问题,以及观察性研究在拓宽特定试验适用性方面的价值。通过不成功和成功的试验示例来说明相关问题,重点是老年人身体活动的临床试验。