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狱中前景:监狱人群中的风险决策分析。

Prospects behind bars: analyzing decisions under risk in a prison population.

机构信息

University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

出版信息

Psychon Bull Rev. 2010 Oct;17(5):630-6. doi: 10.3758/PBR.17.5.630.

DOI:10.3758/PBR.17.5.630
PMID:21037159
Abstract

Criminal activity often involves considerable risks. It is therefore not surprising that criminals have been speculated to differ from noncriminals in risk attitude. Yet, few data exist to support this assumption. Moreover, the psychological underpinnings of differences in risk attitude are currently little understood. We presented prisoners and controls with sets of risky decision tasks and modeled their responses using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The two groups showed several differences. Prisoners were more risk seeking than nonprisoners in lotteries involving losses, but they were less risk seeking in lotteries involving high-probability gains. Best-fitting CPT parameters indicated a reduced sensitivity to outcomes, for both gains and losses, and a stronger loss aversion among prisoners. In addition, prisoners showed a diminished sensitivity to the probability of gains. Our results contribute to a better understanding of prisoners' risk attitudes and the underlying mechanisms that distinguish prisoners from nonprisoners and may thus help improve interventions designed to prevent crime.

摘要

犯罪活动通常涉及相当大的风险。因此,犯罪者的风险态度与非犯罪者不同,这并不奇怪。然而,目前几乎没有数据支持这一假设。此外,风险态度差异的心理基础目前还知之甚少。我们向囚犯和对照组展示了一系列风险决策任务,并使用累积前景理论(CPT)对他们的反应进行了建模。这两组人表现出了一些差异。与涉及损失的彩票相比,囚犯比非囚犯更倾向于冒险,但与涉及高概率收益的彩票相比,囚犯则不太倾向于冒险。最佳拟合的 CPT 参数表明,囚犯对收益和损失的结果敏感度降低,对损失的厌恶感更强。此外,囚犯对收益概率的敏感度也降低了。我们的研究结果有助于更好地理解囚犯的风险态度以及将囚犯与非囚犯区分开来的潜在机制,从而有助于改进旨在预防犯罪的干预措施。

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本文引用的文献

1
Similar Processes Despite Divergent Behavior in Two Commonly Used Measures of Risky Decision Making.尽管在两种常用的风险决策测量方法中行为存在差异,但过程相似。
J Behav Decis Mak. 2009 Oct;22(4):435-454. doi: 10.1002/bdm.641.
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The probabilistic nature of preferential choice.优先选择的概率性质。
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Neurocognitive deficits related to poor decision making in people behind bars.与狱中人员决策能力差相关的神经认知缺陷。
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Psychon Bull Rev. 2008 Feb;15(1):44-51. doi: 10.3758/pbr.15.1.44.
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Are juvenile offenders extreme future discounters?青少年罪犯是极端的未来折扣者吗?
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The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.优先启发式:不做权衡的决策方式。
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Domain specificity in experimental measures and participant recruitment: an application to risk-taking behavior.实验测量和参与者招募中的领域特异性:对冒险行为的应用
Psychol Sci. 2006 Apr;17(4):300-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01702.x.
8
Substance abuse and dependence in prisoners: a systematic review.囚犯中的药物滥用与药物依赖:一项系统综述。
Addiction. 2006 Feb;101(2):181-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01316.x.
9
Gambling among offenders: results from an Australian survey.罪犯中的赌博行为:一项澳大利亚调查的结果。
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2005 Jun;49(3):343-55. doi: 10.1177/0306624X04270790.
10
Prisoner risk taking in the Russian Federation.俄罗斯联邦囚犯的冒险行为。
AIDS Educ Prev. 2002 Oct;14(5 Suppl B):7-23. doi: 10.1521/aeap.14.7.7.23857.