University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2010 Dec;17(6):923-30. doi: 10.3758/PBR.17.6.923.
In several recent reviews, authors have argued for the pervasive use of fast-and-frugal heuristics in human judgment. They have provided an overview of heuristics and have reiterated findings corroborating that such heuristics can be very valid strategies leading to high accuracy. They also have reviewed previous work that implies that simple heuristics are actually used by decision makers. Unfortunately, concerning the latter point, these reviews appear to be somewhat incomplete. More important, previous conclusions have been derived from investigations that bear some noteworthy methodological limitations. I demonstrate these by proposing a new heuristic and provide some novel critical findings. Also, I review some of the relevant literature often not-or only partially-considered. Overall, although some fast-and-frugal heuristics indeed seem to predict behavior at times, there is little to no evidence for others. More generally, the empirical evidence available does not warrant the conclusion that heuristics are pervasively used.
在最近的几项综述中，作者主张在人类判断中广泛使用快速而简约的启发式。他们概述了启发式，并重复了证实这些启发式可以是非常有效的策略，从而导致高度准确性的发现。他们还回顾了以前的工作，这些工作表明简单的启发式实际上被决策者所使用。不幸的是，关于后一点，这些综述似乎有些不完整。更重要的是，以前的结论是从一些具有显著方法学局限性的研究中得出的。我通过提出一个新的启发式来证明这一点，并提供一些新的关键发现。此外，我还回顾了一些经常被忽视或仅部分考虑的相关文献。总的来说，虽然一些快速而简约的启发式在某些时候似乎确实可以预测行为，但对于其他启发式则几乎没有证据。更普遍地说，现有的经验证据并不能证明启发式被广泛使用。
