University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Asia Pac J Public Health. 2011 Jan;23(1):10-23. doi: 10.1177/1010539510390673.
This article aims to examine the epidemiological transition in Nauru through analysis of available mortality data. Mortality data from death certificates and published material were used to construct life tables and calculate age-standardized mortality rates (from 1960) with 95% confidence intervals. Proportional mortality was calculated from 1947. Female life expectancy (LE) varied from 57 to 61 years with no significant trend. Age-standardized mortality for males (15-64 years) doubled from 1960-1970 to 1976-1981 and then decreased to 1986-1992, with LE fluctuating since then from 49 to 54 years. Proportional mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes increased substantially, reaching more than 30%. Nauru demonstrates a very long period of stagnation in life expectancy in both males and females as a consequence of the epidemiological transition, with major chronic disease mortality in adults showing no sustained downward trends over 40 years. Potential overinterpretation of trends from previous data due to lack of confidence intervals was highlighted.
本文旨在通过分析现有死亡率数据来考察瑙鲁的流行病学转变。我们使用死亡证明和已发表材料中的死亡率数据构建生命表,并计算年龄标准化死亡率(1960 年起)及其 95%置信区间。1947 年起的比例死亡率也进行了计算。女性的预期寿命(LE)从 57 岁到 61 岁不等,没有明显的趋势。男性(15-64 岁)的年龄标准化死亡率从 1960-1970 年到 1976-1981 年翻了一番,然后在 1986-1992 年下降,此后 LE 一直在 49 岁到 54 岁之间波动。心血管疾病和糖尿病的比例死亡率大幅上升,达到 30%以上。由于流行病学转变,瑙鲁男性和女性的预期寿命都经历了很长一段时间的停滞,40 多年来,成年人的主要慢性疾病死亡率没有持续下降的趋势。由于缺乏置信区间,之前数据中的趋势可能被过度解读。