Kelly G E, Stanley B S, Weller I V
Academic Department of Genito Urinary Medicine, University College and Middlesex School of Medicine, London, UK.
Genitourin Med. 1990 Aug;66(4):238-43. doi: 10.1136/sti.66.4.238.
Progression rates from asymptomatic to symptomatic Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection according to the CDC classification were prospectively studied in a cohort of 172 seropositive homosexual and bisexual men. The median follow-up time was 4 years. The progression from data of entry to the study to any group IV disease was 56% (SE 7%) at 5 years. However, the progression from an estimated date of seroconversion to any group IV disease was 36% (SE 4%) at 5 years. This was more than double the progression rate to AIDS-14% (SE 3%) at 5 years calculated in the same way. There were no differences in progression to AIDS from group IV A (systemic symptoms such as unexplained fever, weight loss or persistent diarrhoea) and group IV C-2 (oral candida or oral hairy leukoplakia). Progression rates to AIDS were significantly lower (p = 0.02) in patients who were under 25 years of age at entry than in those over 25. A review of progression rates to AIDS among homosexual cohorts shows that they tend to be higher than in cohorts of haemophiliac patients, in the early stage of infection. However, when Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia is the outcome measure, progression rates in all studies are remarkably similar.
在一组172名血清反应呈阳性的同性恋和双性恋男性中，根据美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）的分类方法，对从无症状到有症状的人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）感染的进展率进行了前瞻性研究。中位随访时间为4年。从进入研究的数据到任何IV组疾病的5年进展率为56%（标准误7%）。然而，从估计的血清转化日期到任何IV组疾病的5年进展率为36%（标准误4%）。这比以同样方式计算的5年艾滋病进展率——14%（标准误3%）高出一倍多。从IV A组（如不明原因发热、体重减轻或持续性腹泻等全身症状）和IV C-2组（口腔念珠菌病或口腔毛状白斑）进展到艾滋病的情况没有差异。进入研究时年龄在25岁以下的患者进展到艾滋病的比率显著低于25岁以上的患者（p = 0.02）。对同性恋队列中艾滋病进展率的回顾表明，在感染早期，他们的进展率往往高于血友病患者队列。然而，当以卡氏肺孢子虫肺炎作为观察指标时，所有研究中的进展率都非常相似。
