Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Switzerland.
J Phys Act Health. 2011 Jan;8 Suppl 1:S49-58. doi: 10.1123/jpah.8.s1.s49.
Promoting bicycling has great potential to increase overall physical activity; however, significant uncertainty exists with regard to the amount and effectiveness of investment needed for infrastructure. The objective of this study is to assess how costs of Portland's past and planned investments in bicycling relate to health and other benefits.
Costs of investment plans are compared with 2 types of monetized health benefits, health care cost savings and value of statistical life savings. Levels of bicycling are estimated using past trends, future mode share goals, and a traffic demand model.
By 2040, investments in the range of $138 to $605 million will result in health care cost savings of $388 to $594 million, fuel savings of $143 to $218 million, and savings in value of statistical lives of $7 to $12 billion. The benefit-cost ratios for health care and fuel savings are between 3.8 and 1.2 to 1, and an order of magnitude larger when value of statistical lives is used.
This first of its kind cost-benefit analysis of investments in bicycling in a US city shows that such efforts are cost-effective, even when only a limited selection of benefits is considered.
推广自行车出行对于增加整体身体活动量具有巨大潜力；然而，对于基础设施所需的投资数量和效果仍存在很大的不确定性。本研究旨在评估波特兰市过去和计划中的自行车投资成本与健康和其他效益的关系。
将投资计划的成本与 2 种货币化健康效益（医疗保健成本节省和生命统计价值节省）进行比较。使用过去的趋势、未来的模式份额目标和交通需求模型来估计自行车出行水平。
到 2040 年，投资 1.38 亿至 6.05 亿美元将带来 3.88 亿至 5.94 亿美元的医疗保健成本节省、1.43 亿至 2.18 亿美元的燃料节省和 7 亿至 120 亿美元的生命统计价值节省。医疗保健和燃料节省的效益成本比在 3.8 到 1.2 之间，而当使用生命统计价值时则大一个数量级。
这是美国城市首次对自行车投资进行成本效益分析，表明即使只考虑有限的效益，此类投资也是具有成本效益的。
