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倾向评分分析的目标和方法概述。

An overview of the objectives of and the approaches to propensity score analyses.

机构信息

Section for Clinical Biometrics, Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Spitalgasse 23, A-1090 Vienna, Austria.

出版信息

Eur Heart J. 2011 Jul;32(14):1704-8. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehr031. Epub 2011 Feb 28.

Abstract

The assessment of treatment effects from observational studies may be biased with patients not randomly allocated to the experimental or control group. One way to overcome this conceptual shortcoming in the design of such studies is the use of propensity scores to adjust for differences of the characteristics between patients treated with experimental and control interventions. The propensity score is defined as the probability that a patient received the experimental intervention conditional on pre-treatment characteristics at baseline. Here, we review how propensity scores are estimated and how they can help in adjusting the treatment effect for baseline imbalances. We further discuss how to evaluate adequate overlap of baseline characteristics between patient groups, provide guidelines for variable selection and model building in modelling the propensity score, and review different methods of propensity score adjustments. We conclude that propensity analyses may help in evaluating the comparability of patients in observational studies, and may account for more potential confounding factors than conventional covariate adjustment approaches. However, bias due to unmeasured confounding cannot be corrected for.

摘要

观察性研究中治疗效果的评估可能存在偏倚,因为患者不是随机分配到实验组或对照组的。克服此类研究设计中这一概念性缺陷的方法之一是使用倾向评分来调整实验组和对照组患者特征之间的差异。倾向评分定义为患者接受实验干预的概率,前提是在基线时具有特定的治疗前特征。在此,我们回顾了如何估计倾向评分以及如何帮助调整治疗效果以消除基线不平衡。我们进一步讨论了如何评估患者组之间的基线特征是否有足够的重叠,提供了在建模倾向评分时选择变量和构建模型的准则,并回顾了不同的倾向评分调整方法。我们的结论是,倾向分析可能有助于评估观察性研究中患者的可比性,并可能比传统的协变量调整方法考虑到更多潜在的混杂因素。然而,无法纠正由于未测量的混杂而导致的偏倚。

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