Prognostic predictors of outcome in an operative series in traumatic brain injury patients.

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic factors for traumatic brain injury (TBI) have been evaluated, a useful predictive scoring model for outcome has yet to be developed for TBI patients. The aim of this study was to determine independent predictors and develop a multivariate logistic regression equation to determine prognosis in TBI patients.

METHODS

A total of 13 different variables were evaluated. All 84 patients in this study were retrospectively evaluated between October 2003 and January 2008 and all underwent craniectomy or craniotomy for hematoma removal and were fitted with intracranial pressure (ICP) microsensor monitors. By using univariate, multiple logistic regression and prognostic regression scoring equations it was possible to draw Receiver-Operating Characteristic curves (ROC) to predict Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) 6 months after TBI.

RESULTS

We found that patients over 40 years of age (p < 0.001), unresponsive pre-op pupil reaction (p =0.001), pre-op midline shift (p =0.008), higher injury severity score (ISS; p=0.007), and craniectomy (p < 0.05) were associated with poor outcome in patients with TBI. Using ROC curve to predict the probability of unfavorable outcome, the sensitivity was 97.5% and the specificity was 90.7%.

CONCLUSION

In our preliminary findings, five variables to predict poor outcomes 6 months after TBI were useful. These sensitive variables can be used as a referential guideline in our daily practice to decide whether or not to perform advanced management or avoid decompressive craniectomy.