School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2011 Sep;8(9):983-95. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2010.0786. Epub 2011 May 11.
The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates.
本研究采用结构化专家 elicitation 调查，对加拿大九种肠病原体引起的疾病进行食物归因估计。它基于在美国进行的类似调查，重点关注弯曲杆菌 spp.、大肠杆菌 O157:H7、李斯特菌 monocytogenes、非伤寒沙门氏菌、志贺氏菌 spp.、弧菌 spp.、耶尔森氏菌 enterocolitica、微小隐孢子虫和诺如病毒。采用雪球方法在加拿大确定食品安全专家。调查受访者提供了背景信息以及对每种病原体和 12 种食物类别的自我评估。根据病原体的不同，食物源归因估计基于 10 至 35 位专家的回答。对于每种病原体，专家将其总食源性疾病的估计值分为 12 种食物类别，并为每种类别提供最佳估计值，以及被认为是载体的食物的第 5 和第 95 个百分位数限制。他们的回答被视为三角概率分布，线性聚合用于组合每组专家对每种病原体-食物源组的意见。在 108 种病原体-食物组中，大多数专家同意 30 种来源和 48 种非来源的疾病。大多数专家认为病原体来源的食物组数量因病原体而异，从弯曲杆菌 spp.（海鲜）和微小隐孢子虫（农产品）的一个食物源到沙门氏菌 spp.的七个食物源。贝塔分布被拟合到聚合意见中，对于大多数病原体-食物组归因是合理的表示。这些结果将用于定量评估加拿大食源性疾病的负担，并分析我们估计的不确定性。
