Bollen Kenneth A, Brand Jennie E
H.W. Odum Institute for Research in Social Science, Department of Sociology & Statistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
Soc Forces. 2010 Sep;89(1):1-34. doi: 10.1353/sof.2010.0072.
Fixed and random effects models for longitudinal data are common in sociology. Their primary advantage is that they control for time-invariant omitted variables. However, analysts face several issues when they employ these models. One is the uncertainty of whether to apply the fixed effects (FEM) versus the random effects (REM) models. Another less discussed issue is that the FEM and REM models as usually implemented might be insufficiently flexible. For instance, the effects of variables, including the latent time-invariant variable, might change over time rather than be constant as in the usual FEM and REM. The latent time-invariant variable might correlate with some variables and not others. Lagged endogenous variables might be necessary. Alternatives that move beyond the classic FEM and REM models are known, but they involve different estimators and software that make these extended models difficult to implement and to compare. This paper presents a general panel model that includes the standard FEM and REM as special cases. In addition, it provides a sequence of nested models that provide a richer range of models that researchers can easily compare with likelihood ratio tests and fit statistics. Furthermore, researchers can implement our general panel model and its special cases in widely available structural equation models (SEMs) software. The paper is oriented towards applied researchers with most technical details given in the appendix and footnotes. An extended empirical example illustrates our results.
纵向数据的固定效应模型和随机效应模型在社会学中很常见。它们的主要优点是能够控制时间不变的遗漏变量。然而,分析人员在使用这些模型时会面临几个问题。一个问题是在应用固定效应模型(FEM)和随机效应模型(REM)之间存在不确定性。另一个较少被讨论的问题是,通常实施的FEM和REM模型可能灵活性不足。例如,变量的效应,包括潜在的时间不变变量,可能会随时间变化,而不像通常的FEM和REM那样保持不变。潜在的时间不变变量可能与某些变量相关,而与其他变量不相关。滞后内生变量可能是必要的。已知有超越经典FEM和REM模型的替代方法,但它们涉及不同的估计器和软件,使得这些扩展模型难以实施和比较。本文提出了一个一般面板模型,其中包括作为特殊情况的标准FEM和REM。此外,它提供了一系列嵌套模型,这些模型提供了更丰富的模型范围,研究人员可以通过似然比检验和拟合统计量轻松进行比较。此外,研究人员可以在广泛使用的结构方程模型(SEM)软件中实施我们的一般面板模型及其特殊情况。本文面向应用研究人员,大多数技术细节在附录和脚注中给出。一个扩展的实证例子说明了我们的结果。