Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
J R Soc Interface. 2012 Mar 7;9(68):562-70. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0325. Epub 2011 Jul 20.
It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.
预计下一代计算传染病模型将同时模拟传染病传播和人类行为动态变化。模拟中的个体代理不仅会相互感染，还将具有情境意识和决策算法，使他们能够改变自己的行为。本文开发了这样一种行为反应模型，为个体决策的著名心理模型——健康信念模型提供了数学解释，该模型适合纳入基于主体的疾病传播模型中。我们形式化了健康信念模型，并展示了其在模拟 2003 年香港 SARS 疫情期间口罩使用流行率方面的应用，这是对疾病爆发做出行为改变的一个有充分记录的例子。
